GPN RESEARCH

Global Markets Intelligence

Research Methodology Guide

Standards, Frameworks & Analytical Protocols

Version 3.2  •  April 2026  •  For Internal and Institutional Use

1. Purpose & Scope

This guide establishes the research methodology standards applied across all GPN Research publications, including market intelligence reports, sector analyses, thematic research notes, and quantitative strategy papers. It is intended for use by research analysts, editorial staff, and institutional clients who wish to understand the analytical frameworks underpinning GPN's published output.

All GPN Research publications are produced in accordance with the principles set out in this document. Deviations from the standard methodology, where applicable, are disclosed explicitly within individual reports.

2. Research Philosophy

GPN Research operates on the principle that rigorous, transparent, and evidence-based analysis is the foundation of sound investment decision-making. Our research framework is built on three core tenets:

•        Objectivity: All analysis is conducted independently of commercial relationships. Analyst compensation is not linked to specific research conclusions or investment banking outcomes.

•        Transparency: Data sources, methodological assumptions, and model limitations are disclosed in all published work.

•        Timeliness: Research is published with sufficient frequency and lead time to be actionable for institutional clients operating across global time zones.

3. Data Sources & Collection Standards

3.1 Primary Data Sources

GPN Research draws on a curated set of primary and secondary data sources. All data used in quantitative analysis is subject to a validation process before incorporation into published models or charts.

3.2 Data Validation Protocol

Prior to use in any published analysis, all incoming data is subject to the following validation steps:

1. Cross-reference against at least one independent secondary source where feasible.

2.   Outlier detection: values beyond 3 standard deviations from rolling 12-month mean are flagged for manual review.

3.   Revision tracking: where source data is subject to subsequent revision (e.g., employment figures, GDP estimates), GPN Research notes preliminary versus final readings in the relevant publication.

4.   Timestamp verification: all data is recorded with the source publication date and the date of ingestion into GPN's internal systems.

4. Analytical Frameworks

4.1 Macroeconomic Analysis

GPN's macroeconomic research employs a top-down analytical framework that begins with global growth and inflation dynamics before cascading to regional, country-level, and sector-specific implications. The principal frameworks in use are:

Growth cycle model: A proprietary composite of leading economic indicators used to identify the current phase of the economic cycle across G10 economies. Phases are classified as Expansion, Peak, Contraction, or Trough.

Inflation decomposition: CPI and PCE components are disaggregated into energy, food, core goods, and core services to distinguish transitory from structural inflation dynamics.

Policy rate projection model: Combines market-implied rate paths with GPN's own macroeconomic forecasts to derive base, bull, and bear case scenarios for central bank policy over a 12-month horizon.

4.2 Equity Market Analysis

Equity research at GPN integrates fundamental, quantitative, and sentiment-based inputs. The standard equity market framework includes:

•        Earnings revision momentum: tracks analyst consensus estimate revisions as a forward-looking signal for sector and index performance.

•        Valuation: trailing and forward price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and EV/EBITDA multiples benchmarked against 10-year historical ranges and cross-regional peers.

•        Factor analysis: exposure decomposition across value, growth, quality, momentum, low-volatility, and size factors using a proprietary multi-factor model updated monthly.

•        Sentiment indicators: incorporates investor positioning data (CFTC Commitment of Traders), options market put/call ratios, and fund flow data from EPFR Global.

4.3 Fixed Income & Credit Analysis

Fixed income research applies both relative value and absolute return frameworks. Core analytical tools include:

•        Yield curve decomposition: separates nominal yields into real rate and inflation breakeven components using the Fisher equation.

•        Credit spread analysis: corporate and sovereign spreads assessed relative to historical percentile ranks and macro regime overlays.

•        Duration and convexity: portfolio-level interest rate sensitivity computed using modified duration and convexity measures across benchmark maturities.

4.4 Foreign Exchange Analysis

GPN's FX framework integrates three complementary approaches to exchange rate analysis, reflecting the multi-driver nature of currency markets:

Fundamental valuation: Purchasing power parity (PPP), real effective exchange rate (REER) deviation, and current account balances are used to assess medium-term fair value.

Cyclical positioning: Interest rate differentials, growth divergence, and risk appetite proxies drive the cyclical overlay.

Technical analysis: Key support/resistance levels, momentum indicators, and trend-following signals from moving average crossovers complement the fundamental framework for near-term trade recommendations.

5. Publication Standards

5.1 Research Categories

GPN Research publications are classified into the following categories, each with defined scope, length, and update frequency:

5.2 Forecasting Standards

All forward-looking statements and price targets published by GPN Research are subject to the following standards:

•        A base case, bull case, and bear case scenario must be provided for all 12-month price targets on indices and asset classes.

•        Probability weights are assigned to each scenario using a structured analyst judgment process informed by the macro regime model.

•        Forecasts are reviewed and updated at a minimum quarterly, or on a triggered basis when material data releases or geopolitical events alter the baseline assumption set.

•        Historical forecast accuracy is tracked internally and disclosed in the Annual Methodology Review published each January.

5.3 Conflict of Interest & Independence

GPN Research maintains strict separation between its research function and any affiliated advisory or commercial activities. The following protocols are in place:

5. No analyst may hold a personal position in any security or instrument covered by their research without prior written disclosure to the Compliance function.

6.   Research conclusions may not be reviewed or modified by commercial relationship managers prior to publication.

7. Where GPN has a material commercial relationship with a company or government entity referenced in a research publication, this relationship is disclosed in the relevant report.

8.   External peer review is conducted on all thematic and quantitative research publications prior to release.

6. Quantitative Modelling Standards

6.1 Model Governance

All quantitative models used in GPN Research publications are subject to a formal model governance framework. This framework includes:

•        Model registration: each model is assigned a unique identifier and maintained in GPN's internal Model Registry with version control.

•        Backtesting: all predictive models are backtested over a minimum 10-year historical window, or the maximum available data history where less than 10 years of data exists.

•        Out-of-sample validation: models are validated on held-out data not used in the estimation or calibration process.

•        Annual review: all models are subject to formal annual performance review, with documented assessment of any deterioration in predictive accuracy.

6.2 Statistical Conventions

The following statistical conventions apply across all GPN quantitative research:

Significance threshold: Statistical significance is assessed at the 5% level (p < 0.05) unless otherwise stated.

Confidence intervals: 95% confidence intervals are reported for all point estimates where applicable.

Return calculations: Total returns (price return plus income return) are used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Returns are log-transformed for multi-period analysis.

Currency: All multi-currency analyses are conducted in USD unless the publication specifies local currency terms.

Seasonality adjustment: Macroeconomic time series are used in seasonally adjusted form sourced directly from the originating statistical agency where available.

7. Revision & Correction Policy

GPN Research is committed to maintaining the accuracy of all published analysis. The following policy governs revisions and corrections:

9.   Material errors: where a factual error or material calculation error is identified in a published report, a correction notice is issued within one business day of identification and distributed to all original report recipients.

10.                      Non-material updates: minor editorial corrections or formatting updates do not require a formal correction notice but are noted in the document version history.

11.                        Forecast revisions: changes to published price targets or macro forecasts are issued as a standalone revision note, referencing the original publication, within five business days of the decision to revise.

12.                       Transparency log: all corrections and revisions are logged in GPN's internal Transparency Register, which is available to institutional clients upon request.

8. Review & Version Control

This Research Methodology Guide is a living document reviewed and updated on an annual basis, with interim revisions issued as required by regulatory changes, product evolution, or material shifts in GPN's analytical frameworks.

DISCLAIMER

This Research Methodology Guide is produced by GPN Research for informational and operational purposes. It does not constitute investment advice. The methodologies described herein are subject to change without prior notice. GPN Research does not accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on the contents of this document. For queries regarding research methodology, please contact the GPN Research Compliance and Standards team.